Team Form and League Position
Benfica currently occupy third place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga with 32 points accumulated from 14 matches, maintaining a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses. The club has established themselves as genuine title contenders, sitting just 8 points behind leaders FC Porto. Their goal difference of +22 reflects their attacking dominance throughout the season.
FC Famalicão hold sixth position with 23 points from 14 matches, recording 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. Despite their lower league position, Famalicão have shown competitive spirit with a positive goal difference of +9. The visitors will be motivated to secure points against a top-three rival to strengthen their position in the upper half of the table.
Key Players and Match Statistics
Vangelis Pavlidis emerges as the standout performer in this fixture, leading the entire Primeira Liga with 13 goals from 14 matches. The Benfica forward has been instrumental in his team's attacking success and will be the primary focus of Famalicão's defensive strategy. His combination of positioning, finishing ability, and work rate makes him a constant threat in the final third.
For Famalicão, midfielder Gil Dias provides attacking support with 4 goals and 1 assist, while the team's overall defensive record shows 8 clean sheets in 15 matches. Benfica's defensive solidity is evident with 7 clean sheets, though they have conceded 9 goals across their 14 league matches, indicating potential vulnerabilities that Famalicão may attempt to exploit.
Match Prediction and Analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a Benfica victory as the most probable outcome with a 59.56% probability of success. The draw scenario carries a 21.44% likelihood, while a Famalicão upset registers at 18.99%. These probabilities reflect Benfica's superior league position, home advantage, and recent form advantages.
The expected goal distribution suggests Benfica will likely score between 1-2 goals with an 86.14% probability of scoring over 0.5 goals and a 58.75% chance of exceeding 1.5 goals. Famalicão face a more challenging offensive outlook, with a 63.97% probability of scoring at least one goal but only a 27.19% chance of netting more than 1.5 goals. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 total goals with a 57.61% probability.