Match Overview
Deportes Tolima and Fortaleza CEIF clash in a critical Clausura playoff group stage encounter at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibague, Colombia. The match is scheduled for 20:00 UTC and forms part of Group B of the Primera A championship playoff format. This fixture carries substantial weight for both teams' tournament aspirations.
Tolima enters as the clear favorites, commanding first place in the group with 11 points accumulated from 5 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses demonstrates exceptional consistency and resilience. Fortaleza, meanwhile, occupies fourth position with a significantly weaker record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, accumulating just 3 points.
Team Form and Recent Performance
Tolima's recent form has been exceptional, remaining undefeated across their last 10 matches in the Liga Aguila tournament. During this impressive run, they have secured 8 victories and 2 draws, showcasing both attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Their goal-scoring average stands at 1.43 goals per match in the tournament, while their defensive record remains relatively strong with an average of 1.5 goals conceded per match at home.
Fortaleza's recent performance tells a contrasting story, with the team managing only 3 victories in their last 10 matches while suffering 6 defeats. Their goal-scoring average of 1 goal per match falls significantly below Tolima's output, while they concede an average of 1.5 goals per match. The team's current trajectory suggests they are struggling to find consistency and cohesion during this critical playoff stage.
Historical Context and Head-to-Head Record
The historical record between Tolima and Fortaleza reveals a relatively balanced competition across their official encounters. The teams have played 6 matches, with Tolima securing 1 victory, Fortaleza earning 2 wins, and 4 matches concluding in draws. This suggests that despite Tolima's current dominance in the league standings, Fortaleza has demonstrated the capability to compete effectively against them.
Their most recent meeting on November 18, 2025, resulted in a 1-0 victory for Fortaleza, indicating that the away side possesses tactical strengths that can trouble Tolima. That match saw Fortaleza demonstrate superior shot accuracy with 5 shots on target compared to Tolima's 1, despite possessing less ball possession at 47%. This performance suggests Fortaleza's defensive organization and counter-attacking efficiency remain viable threats.
Match Predictions and Statistical Analysis
Statistical analysis and predictive algorithms favor a Tolima victory, with the most probable outcome being a 1-0 scoreline at 15.41% probability. A 1-1 draw follows at 12.17%, while a 2-0 Tolima win is predicted at 11.32%. These projections reflect Tolima's superior form, home advantage, and overall tournament position.
Key trends indicate that Under 2.5 goals have been scored in Tolima's last 5 matches against Fortaleza in Liga Aguila, suggesting a pattern of relatively low-scoring encounters between these clubs. Additionally, Tolima has averaged 1.54 goals at home in the tournament, while Fortaleza averages only 0.86 goals away from home, further supporting predictions favoring a narrow Tolima victory.